COP 28, moving steadily towards the end of fossil fuels

From 30 November to 12 December, the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2023 took place in Dubai. At the conference, nearly 200 countries discussed how to collectively tackle the climate crisis and reached agreements that set the course towards decarbonisation with a firm step.

The pact, adopted by consensus, seeks an "equitable and orderly transition with the goal of taking action in this critical decade and achieving net zero by 2050, in line with science", urging the international community, for the first time, to "transition away from fossil fuels", but without setting a date for the end of fossil fuels. It is the first time the term fossil fuels has been used, which is a breakthrough in itself.

The text does not explicitly include the phase-out of fossil fuels. Nor does it explicitly include phase-down, a concept in dispute throughout the summit, and which was called for by the EU countries or the United States. Therefore, in an attempt to please all parties, the presidency has resorted to "transitioning away", a concept that calls for a transition away from coal, oil and gas.

The proposal includes, among others, "the need for deep, rapid and sustained emission reductions in line with the 1.5 degree maximum temperature rise target", which means drastic reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions in this decade. The goal of tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030 is maintained, the first time that more than 100 countries have committed to tripling the installed capacity of renewable energy.

A hundred or so states had called for a more far-reaching formulation, i.e. a phase-out. However, the text leaves open back doors, such as the continued use of gas and the use of controversial technologies to store and capture CO2.

These measures reinforce the call for countries to contribute to global efforts to reduce carbon pollution in whatever way they see fit. The agreement signed in Dubai reaffirms the need to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030, 60% by 2035 and to reach global net zero by 2050. The only point it sidesteps, and which had been included in previous drafts of the pact, is the need to reach peak emissions in 2025 and thereafter begin a drastic decline. Even so, the text calls on countries to submit new emission reduction plans by 2024 at the latest. This will require more effort from everyone to measure their carbon footprint. There is no turning back for every company to start calculating its carbon footprint and implement a reduction and, where appropriate, offsetting plan.

The agreement reached at the summit also includes several mentions of the different economic commitments agreed between countries to, on the one hand, halt the advance of the climate crisis and, on the other, deal with its consequences. It consolidates advances in the so-called Loss and Damage Fund that will help developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, creating an operational mechanism and assigning the management of the funds to the World Bank, an entity recognised by the international community.

Climate change mitigation and adaptation, another major challenge, has also been successfully addressed. Adaptation goals for 2030 include assessing climate events, impacts, exposure to risks, design of policy instruments and strategies, early warning and information systems, adaptation plans, and impact reduction.

It is clear that increased funding will be necessary to achieve the targets set, and this undoubtedly marks the direction of capital flows and regulation in the coming months.

The message is clear, and we are making steady progress. The next assessment will be at COP 29 in Azerbaijan.